Our View: We estimate that Rochester has a lot of work to do to regain public trust in its estimates

City needs to expect the unexpected as it considers expensive future projects that will take years to bring to fruition.

Opinion by Post Bulletin Editorial Board

Rochester's elected leaders, as well as the city's professional administrators and planners, are taking some well-deserved heat right now regarding the ballooning projected cost of a taxpayer-funded sports complex on the city's southeast side.

That heat is well-deserved — but in retrospect, signs of potential trouble were evident months before voters went to the polls to sign off on the project.

In July 2023, the city released a 148-page study on the Regional Sports & Recreation Complex . This document covered a lot of ground, but for today's purposes, we refer readers to page 74, on which is found a Summary of Development Costs. Three possible price tags are listed for the combined costs of land acquisition, construction, furnishings and equipment: Low — $65.1 million; Mid — $74.2 million; and High — $81.3 million.

Voters who went to the polls six months later to approve an extension of the city's local-option sales tax had the “Low” price tag in mind. The ballot question earmarked $65 million for the sports complex, and that's the figure Rochester residents had heard repeatedly in the run-up to the vote. If anyone was talking about a possible $81 million price for the complex, they weren't being heard.

It turns out that even that higher figure would not qualify as a good ballpark estimate. Current cost projections stand at $120 million, and the final number might keep growing.

A conceptual indoor rendering from a study done by the city of Rochester about the Rochester Sports & Recreation Complex.

Contributed / City of Rochester

We wish we could shrug our shoulders and call this a one-off, an outlier, a case in which our leaders' best efforts were undone by unforeseen circumstances, but we can't. This funding gap is part of a disturbing pattern that gives Rochester residents ample reason to scoff when city officials talk about the likely costs of any future projects — as well as the benefits, financial and otherwise, that those projects might yield.

For example, the Link Bus Rapid Transit system was initially projected to cost $114 million, but that price has grown to $175 million — and the current bidding process isn't providing much assurance that costs won't keep rising. Local taxpayers won't pick up the tab for these extra costs, but if you're compiling a list of Rochester projects that keep getting pushed back as their price tags rise, this one is near the top.

Then there are two problem areas — some might call them money pits — in the heart of downtown Rochester. The Peace Plaza renovation, known as the “Heart of the City” project, cost $19.4 million in state-provided Destination Medical Center funds. The end product is at best underwhelming, has required a lot of maintenance and repairs, and might ultimately need to be completely redone.

Some of the plaza's much-talked-about paving stones lie in the shadow of another problem property — the Chateau Theater. Formerly an iconic part of the downtown scene, the site has been in limbo since the city purchased it a decade ago for $6 million. Rochester has invested another $4.4 million in plumbing, electrical repairs and acoustic upgrades, yet the Chateau seems little closer to a final, functional form than it was 10 years ago.

The city has put $10 million into the Chateau Theatre, yet the building seems little closer to a final, functional form than it was 10 years ago. Here it is shown on Jan. 26, 2022.

Joe Ahlquist / Post Bulletin

We could go on (don't get us started on when or if the $84 million expansion of Mayo Civic Center will pay for itself), but you get the idea. At the moment, Rochester seems to have a habit of being overly optimistic, then being caught off-guard when reality hits.

Granted, these are unusual times. A global pandemic took a heavy toll on Rochester's tourism economy. A post-COVID spike in inflation caused material costs to soar, and when Mayo Clinic announced its “Bold. Forward. Unbound.” plan in November 2023 (after voters approved the sports complex funding), it instantly changed the construction environment in Rochester. Until Mayo's expansion is complete, the clinic will claim the lion's share of the region's carpenters, electricians, concrete workers and other skilled trades workers.

And now we must worry about tariffs and trade wars.

But Rochester needs to expect the unexpected as it considers expensive future projects that will take years to bring to fruition. Whatever a project might cost if it were being built today, it will cost significantly more when the first yard of concrete is poured 18 months from now. Stuff happens.

We're not accusing anyone of deliberate deception, but we can accuse the city of sloppiness and complacency, especially regarding the sports complex. Our leaders painted a pleasing-yet-fuzzy picture, then said, “We'll flesh out the details after we have the money.” Rochester voters tend to give its leaders the benefit of the doubt, and that's what the city was counting on.

In retrospect, the Post Bulletin's editorial board probably should have protested, but we didn't. We, like a majority of voters, accepted that fuzzy picture at face value — and we now realize that our trust was misplaced.

We're not ready to tear up plans for the sports complex and go back to square one, but we're far from alone in at least considering that option. The mere fact that we're talking about such a possibility is proof that Rochester's leaders have a lot of work to do to regain the public's trust.